Raleigh Hills Real Estate Market Update: October 2026 - Home Prices, Inventory & Market Trends
Raleigh Hills Real Estate Market Update: October 2026
Why home prices appear to be falling, homes are selling faster, and buyers and sellers are experiencing two very different markets.
If you've been following the Raleigh Hills real estate market, you may have noticed something unusual.
The median sale price declined nearly 14% compared with a year ago. Yet homes are selling faster, and a greater percentage are selling above their asking prices.
So what's really happening in Raleigh Hills?
After analyzing 109 closed transactions from the third quarters of 2025 and 2026, along with current active listings, pending contracts, and sales from the most recent 90 days, I've discovered that the market is considerably more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest.
Raleigh Hills isn't experiencing one uniform real estate market. What's happening depends on the type of home, its price, and how it compares with competing properties.
Raleigh Hills home sales: Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026
Let's begin with the year-over-year numbers.
Market indicator | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
Closed sales | 59 | 50 | -15.3% |
Median sale price | $760,000 | $657,000 | -13.6% |
Average sale price | $855,410 | $709,565 | -17.1% |
Average days on market | 43 | 34 | -20.9% |
Sold above final asking price | 25.4% | 30.0% | +4.6 pp |
Final list-to-sale ratio | 98.79% | 99.27% | +0.48 pp |
Source: RMLS closed transactions, July 1–September 30, 2025 and 2026. pp = percentage points.
At first glance, these numbers might suggest Raleigh Hills home values are declining sharply.
But a lower median sale price doesn't necessarily mean individual homes have lost an equivalent amount of value.
To understand why, we need to examine which homes actually sold.
The luxury home market changed the numbers
One of the most revealing differences between the two years was the number of higher priced transactions.
In Q3 2025, 19 homes sold for $900,000 or more. In Q3 2026, that number declined to 11.
Even more significant, two homes sold for more than $2 million in 2025, compared with none in 2026.
Those two 2025 transactions totaled approximately $5.2 million.
When we exclude the two multimillion dollar transactions from 2025, the year over year decline in average sale price narrows from approximately 17.1% to 10.7%.
That's a difference...
It tells us that a substantial portion of the apparent decline in average prices reflects a change in the types of properties selling.
But does that mean Raleigh Hills home values haven't declined?
Not necessarily. So I took the analysis further.
Comparing similar Raleigh Hills homes
To create a more meaningful comparison, I narrowed the data to detached single family homes between 1,500 and 3,500 square feet, excluding condominiums and sales of $2 million or more.
That produced 36 qualifying sales in 2025 and 33 in 2026.
Now the story becomes particularly interesting.
Although the overall Raleigh Hills median sale price declined 13.6%, the median price among this narrower group of detached homes actually increased approximately 3.2%.
However, the median price per square foot declined approximately 10.8%.
These results suggest that the market may be experiencing some underlying pricing pressure, even after removing unusually expensive transactions and condominiums.
But price per square foot is not a perfect measure of property appreciation or depreciation.
Home size, age, condition, location, lot characteristics, and renovations can all influence the number.
The conclusion is that Raleigh Hills' overall median price decline exaggerates what we can confidently say about changes in individual property values.
Are Raleigh Hills homes taking longer to sell?
Interestingly, the opposite appears to be happening among properties that successfully closed.
Average days on market declined from 43 to 34 days year over year.
Among our more comparable detached homes, median marketing time was nearly unchanged: 12 days in 2025 and 11 days in 2026.
But there's another finding that deserves attention.
The relationship between asking price reductions and marketing time
In 2026, homes without recorded asking price reductions had a median marketing period of just five days.
Homes that underwent reductions had a median of 58.5 days.
That's a substantial difference.
It doesn't establish that overpricing alone caused those longer marketing periods. Properties often undergo reductions after they've already spent considerable time on the market.
Nevertheless, the relationship between extended marketing periods and asking price reductions is striking.
And it reinforces something I've long believed about selling real estate: the initial pricing strategy deserves careful attention.
Buyers have access to extensive market information. When a home appears competitively priced, they're often willing to act quickly. When the price exceeds what buyers believe the property is worth, the response can be very different.
Is Raleigh Hills a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Now we come to perhaps the most important question for buyers and sellers.
To evaluate current market conditions, I examined 48 active listings, 19 pending transactions, and 52 closed sales over the most recent 90 day period.
Unlike our year over year comparison, which uses completed calendar quarters, this inventory analysis uses a rolling 90 day window to capture the most recent sales activity.
With approximately 83 days of inventory, Raleigh Hills overall has relatively limited housing supply, traditionally indicating a seller favorable market.
But the overall number conceals a dramatic difference between price ranges.
A tale of two markets: Inventory by price range
The differences are substantial.
Below $1.2 million, Raleigh Hills generally has between approximately two and three months of inventory, suggesting conditions more favorable to sellers.
Above $1.2 million, however, inventory rises to approximately 203 days, or 6.75 months.
That's a very different market.
There are nine active listings priced at $1.2 million or more, compared with just four closed sales over the previous 90 days.
In other words, nearly 19% of Raleigh Hills' active listings are priced above $1.2 million, while that segment accounted for fewer than 8% of recent closed transactions.
This suggests significantly greater competition among higher priced sellers.
There is one encouraging indicator: four additional properties in this price range are currently pending.
Those contracts may indicate improving buyer activity, although we won't know their final outcomes until they close.
Because the luxury segment contains relatively few transactions, its inventory measurement can also change substantially with just one or two additional sales.
The takeaway? Raleigh Hills is generally seller favorable below $1.2 million, but the upper end is considerably more favorable to buyers.
That distinction is far more useful than applying one market classification to every home in the neighborhood.
What should Raleigh Hills buyers and sellers expect?
For sellers, the data suggests that relatively limited inventory continues to provide an advantage in much of Raleigh Hills.
But limited inventory doesn't guarantee a quick sale or multiple offers.
The relationship between asking price adjustments and marketing time reinforces the importance of understanding competing listings and buyer expectations before bringing a property to market.
For buyers, the opportunities vary considerably by price range.
Below $1.2 million, competition may remain meaningful for well presented, appropriately priced properties.
Above $1.2 million, the larger inventory relative to recent sales could create more opportunities to negotiate.
And regardless of price range, a home's individual circumstances matter more than neighborhood wide statistics alone.
My take on the Raleigh Hills real estate market
Raleigh Hills' real estate market is demonstrating both resilience and price sensitivity.
The overall median sale price declined 13.6% year over year, but much of that comparison is influenced by the types of homes that sold, particularly the reduction in luxury transactions.
Among more comparable detached homes, the median sale price actually increased modestly, although the decline in price per square foot suggests some underlying pricing pressure.
Homes that successfully sold generally spent less time on the market, while properties undergoing asking price reductions experienced substantially longer marketing periods.
And our most recent inventory analysis reveals that supply and demand differ considerably depending on price.
Raleigh Hills isn't simply a buyer's market or a seller's market. It's a market where pricing, property characteristics, and competition within a specific price range determine who has the advantage.
For homeowners, that means understanding what buyers are actually purchasing today, not simply what a neighbor's home sold for last year.
For buyers, it means recognizing that opportunities exist even in markets with relatively limited inventory.
That's why I believe the best real estate decisions begin with understanding the data behind the headlines.
Thinking about buying or selling in Raleigh Hills?
Whether you're considering selling your Raleigh Hills home or looking for the right opportunity to purchase, I'd be happy to help you understand the market conditions specific to your property and price range.
When it's time to make your next move, I'd love the opportunity to be your real estate broker.
Dean Carver
Data Driven. Client Focused.
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