• Carver Home Team

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Market Update - Is this Seller’s Market actually starting to cool off?



The number of available properties for sale went up this week by 4.36%…AND the Inventory Absorption Rate is edging closer to 20 Days. Is this extreme Seller’s Market actually starting to cool off? Let’s get into it and take a closer look at the Phoenix Real Estate Market.

  • There are 6,339 Homes for Sale

  • 29,169 Homes Sold over the Past 90 Days

  • The Inventory Absorption Rate is 19.55 Days

  • The Average Days on Market is 28

  • The List to Sales Price Ratio is 101.5%

  • The Average Sales Price is $505,419

  • The Average 1 Year ago was $365,596

  • 1 Year Increase is 27.66%

Let’s go a little deeper…

So is this extreme Seller’s Market actually cooling off? Kinda. Ya. But it depends. Historically home sales in Phoenix during the month of July slow a little bit. It’s our hottest time of the year so peeps usually head out of the area to cool off. Then in August we start going back to school so real estate heats up. What I’m looking at is the Inventory Absorption Rate and the Average Sales price as my indicators of where we’re headed.


What trends are we seeing?

The Inventory absorption rate 2 months ago was 15.67 Days and 4 months ago 16.1 Days. Now we are at 19.55 Days. To me that’s not a significant indicator that we are definitely cooling off but it’s something to keep an eye on.


The Average Sales Price however is something to consider. 4 months ago it was $449,459 and 2 months ago it was $479,752. Now it’s at $505,419. So we jumped 6.3% from March to May and then 5.1% from May to July. So it’s down a bit. The Average Sales Price is effected by higher priced sales thats why the Median Price is considered the true bellwether. However, I find it more helpful to track the Average Sales Price on a weekly basis to catch emerging trends. For instance IF the luxury market is doing well the mid and lower end will be on fire. If it isn’t doing well then that will impact sales on the lower end of the market negatively. And thats starting to happen but slowly.


Average Days on Market has held steady at 28 days for 3 weeks now. Properties are indeed starting to stay on the market longer. 3 weeks ago 53% of homes were staying on the market for 14 days or more. Last week it was 58.5% and this week its 59%. Homes on the market for 30 days or more 2 weeks ago was 34%, last week 35% and this week 36.3%.


I think we are seeing some buyer fatigue in the market mixed with a little seasonal slowing with a sprinkling of “They want how much for that house?!?”.


The message for sellers: Don’t overprice

The message for buyers: There may be less competition right now


That’s it for this weeks market update. Please be sure to like or follow us. Stay safe out there and if you have any questions about the Phoenix Real Estate Market you know whom to call.


Text or Call Dean at 602-391-9434 with any of your #Arizona real estate questions.


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